As COP28 (28th Conference of Participants in the UN framework convention on climate change) opened on Thursday, there are contextual matters to monitor.
- The World Meteorological Organization announced at the opening of COP28 it is “virtually certain” that 2023 will be the hottest year in recorded history. 2023 has been about 2.5 F above the global average preindustrial temperature from 1850 to 1990. The past nine years have been the warmest nine in 174 years of recorded scientific observations.
- Fossil fuel production is continuing to grow. If you want a more in-depth analysis, these links will take you to two different reports about planned fossil fuel production. Government fossil fuel plans at odds with 1.5°C climate warming target and The Production Gap.
- Commitments made at the COPs are conceptually binding, but have no enforcement mechanism.
- There is cynicism surrounding the location of the meeting in the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s biggest oil producers. It didn’t help that the President of COP28 is Sultan al-Jaber, the head of both the state-owned oil company and the state-owned renewable energy company.
There are also five major matters that will be on the table. These are the matters that I will be monitoring most closing as the conference proceeds.
- Since we know that overall energy demand is not declining, there won’t be a reduction in fossil fuel-related emissions unless substitutes are on-line. So, for me, opportunity number one is for countries to follow the lead of the U.S. and China in agreeing to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
- Correspondingly, the next matter I’ll be monitoring will be progress toward an agreement to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy. In an ideal world, that would appear as an agreement to phase out fossil fuels, but, last time I checked, we don’t live in an ideal world. There are lots of possible degrees between here and there on which agreement could be achieved.
- COP28 will be the first formal assessment (“stocktake”) of whether countries are on a path to meet the 2.7 F—more famously 1.5 C – limit to the rise in average global temperatures (above preindustrial levels). Countries on the path will be encouraged to keep up the good work. Those sliding away from that goal of fulfilling that commitment will need to plan for more ambitious actions.
The final two matters I’ll be monitoring are justice issues.
- Developed nations will be expected to provide investment monies to developing nations to fund clean energy development and improved agriculture practices— precisely because they’re developing: They’re considered riskier investments. And I don’t care if they are called loans, they will be not be repaid. There have been “investment” commitments made in the past, but, to the best of my knowledge, none of the commitments has been fulfilled.
- The final matter is perhaps the most controversial. At COP27, in a surprising last-minute development, the concept was loosely agreed to of a fund to compensate developing countries for irreversible damage caused by climate change. This year, I’ll be watching for progress in defining who pays in and who can get money out.