Two week before the opening of COP28 in Dubai, on November 14th, the U.S. and China announced a climate agreement. Together, the U.S. and China account for nearly 40% of global greenhouse gases. After a vaguely disappointing COP27 (disappointing because the outcome was vague), this agreement instantly raises expectations for COP28. After all, if the two biggest contributors to greenhouse gases can agree to a commitment, other countries should find it easier to make similar agreements. (It has to be acknowledged that there is some cynicism about holding COP28 in Dubai, one of the world’s largest oil producers.
As a historical parallel, a US-China agreement included precise language that became part of the Paris Accord, setting the limiting goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C.
Some components of the US-China agreement are specific, some not so much, and some just plain absent. As the world’s largest methane emitter, China agreed to address methane. Yeah!
Both countries will “pursue efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030,” intending “to accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation,” anticipating “meaningful absolute power sector emission reduction” in this decade. Small Yeah!
There is difference between adding clean energy to fulfill increased energy appetites and adding clean energy to reduce fossil fuel consumption responding to existing energy appetites. There was not a clear commitment by either country to reduce fossil fuel usage, and, specifically China did not commit to slowing or ceasing the permitting and building new coal plants. Not Yeah at all.
As I provide periodic briefing during COP28, it will be interesting to discern the impact of this agreement, so stay tuned.